Reform hit the ceiling in Makerfield, and we know how to build on it

We can all agree that the result in Makerfield earlier this week was striking.

Andy Burnham won 54.8% of the vote, beating Reform UK's Robert Kenyon by more than 9,000 votes in a seat that, on paper, looked vulnerable. Just weeks earlier, Reform had won all eight council wards in the Makerfield constituency in the Wigan local elections, with around 50% of the vote. But when it came to a parliamentary contest, Reform's advance stalled.

More than anything else, it demonstrates that Reform’s brand of divisive politics (which too many Conservatives are too willing to copy) can be beaten. Here’s why:

Reform's ceiling is lower than it looks. The most important finding from Makerfield is this: pollster Luke Tryl of More in Common said it was a very difficult result for Nigel Farage's party, pointing out there was "barely any" increase in Reform's vote share compared with 2024. Reform had polled around 32% in Makerfield at the general election. Despite dominating the local elections there just weeks before, they barely moved at parliamentary level. This matters enormously. Reform's local election surge does not automatically translate into a general election surge. Their vote is real, but it has a ceiling.

Burnham's win was also, in large part, a personal one. Polling during the campaign showed that on a generic Westminster ballot with no candidate names attached, Reform UK led Labour by 11 points in Makerfield. Yet in the named-candidate by-election ballot, Labour led by five points, a 16-point swing driven almost entirely by the candidate himself. This is the Burnham effect, and it is directly transferable as a lesson: voters respond to candidates they know and trust.

A divided right-wing vote also helps enormously. Restore Britain, standing for the first time in a parliamentary contest, took 6.8% of the vote in Makerfield. That is votes that would otherwise mostly have gone to Reform. In our own constituency, the fragmentation of the vote to Reform's right is a structural advantage we should not ignore. When we face Reform in 2029, a top pollster warned that if last night's results were “replicated elsewhere in fragmented politics, Reform's path to government becomes very, very hard.”

Candidate quality matters and voters notice. Reform's candidate Robert Kenyon attracted controversy during the campaign over past social media posts and online comments, some of which were perceived as misogynistic, and focus group evidence from More in Common suggests the issue had some cut-through with voters. That’s no surprise. Reform consistently presents itself as an insurgent movement speaking plain truths, but when its candidates are examined closely, the reality often falls short of the image. Holding Reform candidates to account on their actual record, compassionately but firmly, is entirely legitimate and effective.

The Liberal Democrats' own policy review, Leading the Way, is clear that our task is to offer a compelling, positive alternative. We are the only party with the courage and conviction to offer a compelling, positive alternative to the politics peddled by Farage and Reform on a national level, one grounded in having strong community campaigning and a bold, clear alternative vision.

This will not be easy, but Makerfield has shown us that Reform has a ceiling, that a trusted local candidate can punch through it, and that a divided vote on the right creates real opportunities for us. We should feel energised. There is everything to play for.